To All -
A few months ago, I wrote an essay called, "Ghost Nation" that is on the
VoxPop Index , <
www.calneva.com/voxpop> It related to the
ballooning trade deficit and what that continued growth would effect.
Recently, I have been re-examining that computer model and discovered an
interesting anomaly which might throw the conclusions in that essay into a
"cocked hat."
(Make them even worse and more rapidly occurring.)
Notwithstanding, the terrible statistics, which are just being reported by
the Elite's studies--after many models showed the predictions, since the
beginning of August, 2000---which we relate to the ongoing, aggregating
effects of NAFTA.
Just today, the report, "Job losses in June were led by a sharp decline of
113,000 jobs in manufacturing, which has suffered 785,000 job losses over the
last 12 months, with three-fourths of those losses occurring since January.
" Compound this with the more than 30,000 small farms that have gone belly
up and disappeared since 1998, and you have a drastic "sucking sound" that the
Media is doing their best to ignore; ie. lie about.
The proposition that caused me to re-think the "Ghost Nation" proposition
was that the models showed that our biggest commodity export, since 1995 has
been FRNs--Federal Reserve Notes. It seems that even though the trade
balance has dropped some, due to the real recession we are in, which cuts into
consumer and business purchases of imported goods,
the outflow of the FRN commodity continues unabated. The "strong
dollar" figures show that our currency---FRNs---is still our greatest
export.
The real time model shows the FRNs, as a commodity---as we all know,
created out of thin air---produced from borrowings by both corporations and
consumers.
The anomaly---the lowered interest rates, induced by Greenspan this year,
has not caused a weakening in the currency---indicates that the currency has a
value to other nations, separate from its value as a ROI (Return On Investment)
of their own currency. Either that, or the relative rate of interest is,
in real terms, higher than we are led to believe.
My conclusion is that our currency, in and of itself, has become a trade
commodity which should be ranked as an export commodity, separate from the
values of real trade goods.
This will result in the FRN losing value against other world currency.
This, if it continues, will also make up for reductions in manufactured
goods---commodities produced by capital investment---and become our greatest
export commodity, one produced by the borrowing power of American Corporations
and consumers.
This is not to say that this can continue for any great time frame, as it will devalue the FRN, as it
is relative to the purchasing power of other global conglomerates; ie. nations,
corporations, trade organizations, etc.
Comments ?
Bob$$$
The Economic Model, (after a long term sampling) SHOWS
that the Eventual Effect is Deflation of the Dollar
==========================================================================
money-ethics@uwsa.com is an unmoderated maillist about money and
government. To join or leave send e-mail to majordomo@uwsa.com with
subscribe money-ethics or unsubscribe money-ethics at the
start of the message.
